Dividends4Life: December 2009

Dividend Growth Stocks News

Stock Analysis: Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)

Posted by D4L | Thursday, December 31, 2009 | | 0 comments »

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net December 21, 2009.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Emerson Electric Co. (EMR). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Emerson Electric Co. primarily makes backup power equipment for telecom and Internet providers and users, climate control components, and electric motors.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
EMR is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 13.0% premium to its calculated fair value of $36.97. EMR did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Free Cash Flow Payout
  2. Debt To Total Capital
  3. Key Metrics
  4. Dividend Growth Rate
  5. Years of Div. Growth
  6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
EMR earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. EMR earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1947 and has increased its dividend payments for 52 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to> MMA
EMR earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $637. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as EMR has. If EMR grows its dividend at 6.4% per year, it will take 3 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.72%. EMR earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 3 years is less than the 5 year target.

Other: EMR is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: EMR did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks EMR as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $44.74 before EMR's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 52 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.95%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.7%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 6.4% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. EMR has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

EMR has a strong competitive position within its major product categories and a reputation for providing consistent returns to investors. EMR's advantages include globally branded platforms, new products in the pipeline, a strong balance sheet and free cash flow. The stock is currently trading above my buy price of $36.97, but given its strong dividend fundamentals, I will give it consideration as my asset allocation allows. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in EMR (3.7% of my Income Portfolio). What are your thoughts on EMR?



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5 Recent Dividend Increases

Posted by D4L | Tuesday, December 29, 2009 | | 0 comments »

What separates income investors from dividend investors is the concept of a growing dividend. This dividend growth is the life-blood of a thriving dividend portfolio. The income derived from a quality, well-diversified portfolio is much more predictable than capital gains and the good companies routinely raise their dividends well in excess of the inflation rate.

Recently, the following companies announced increased cash dividends:

AT&T (T) provides telephone and broadband service. December 18th the company increased its quarterly dividend 2.4% to $0.42/share. The dividend is payable February 1, 2010, to common stockholders of record on January 8, 2010. The ex-dividend date is January 6, 2010. T is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 26 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 6.02%.

Franklin Resources (BEN) is one of the world's largest asset managers, serving retail, institutional, and high-net-worth clients. December 18th the company raised its quarterly dividend $0.22/share and announced a special dividend of $3.00/share. The quarterly dividend is payable on January 8, 2010 to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 31, 2009. The special dividend is payable on December 31, 2009 to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 28, 2009. BEN is a Dividend Achiever and has raised its dividend for 29 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 0.82%.

Ensign Group (ENSG) provides skilled nursing and rehabilitative care services in California, Arizona, Texas, Washington, Utah and Idaho. December 21st the company boosted its quarterly dividend to $0.05/share. The dividend, is payable on or before January 31, 2010 to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 29, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 1.32%.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is a leading global drugmaker, with strengths in cardiovascular, anti-infective and anticancer therapeutics. December 21st the company increased its quarterly dividend 3% to $0.32/share. beginning in the first quarter of 2010. James M. Cornelius, chairman and chief executive officer of Bristol-Myers Squibb said in a statement:

This dividend increase reflects our ongoing commitment to deliver shareholder value. We have made excellent progress in executing our strategy and we are confident in the strength of our BioPharma business. Our performance has helped put us in a strong cash position today and we expect solid cash flows to continue in the years ahead.
The next quarterly dividend will be payable on February 1, 2010 to stockholders of record at the close of business on January 4, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 5.00%.

The First of Long Island (FLIC) provides financial services through its wholly-owned subsidiary, The First National Bank of Long Island. December 22nd the company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.20/share, for a total of $0.76/share declared representing a 15% increase over the $0.66/share declared in 2008. The dividend will be paid on January 8, 2010 to shareholders of record on December 31, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 3.51%.

Dividend income is great, but a rising dividend income is something special! For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)


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Week's Best Links - December 28, 2009

Posted by D4L | Monday, December 28, 2009 | | 0 comments »

For your reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

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Merry Christmas 2009

Posted by D4L | Friday, December 25, 2009 | | 0 comments »

On this special day...

I would like to give thanks to all my readers.

Enjoy the time spent with your family and those that mean the most to you.


Merry Christmas!

Dividends4Life

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Expert Picks for 2010

Posted by D4L | Thursday, December 24, 2009 | | 0 comments »

'Tis the season for stock predictions! Virtually every financial writer will pen an article selecting his or her top picks for the upcoming year. I enjoy reading them and the logic behind the picks. As a long-term buy and hold investor, generally most aren't useful for me; nevertheless, I find them entertaining and sometimes there is a gem to be found.

Andrea Tse, in an article from TheStreet.com believes consumer-goods stocks are poised to grow next year as the economy lifts and consumer spending rebounds. Here are her 6 picks for 2010:

  • Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) - A leading international supplier of products for the lawn and garden market.
  • Clorox (CLX) - A manufacturer and marketer of consumer products including Clorox bleach, Armor All, STP, Kingsford, Hidden Valley, etc. CLX is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for the last 32 consecutive years.
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) - A leading consumer products company that markets its household and personal care products in more than 180 countries. PG is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for the last 53 consecutive years. [Analysis]
  • Philip Morris International (PMI) - An international tobacco company.
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - A leader in the pharmaceutical, medical device and consumer products industries. JNJ is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for the last 47 consecutive years. [Analysis]
  • PepsiCo (PEP) - a major international producer of branded beverage and snack food products. PEP is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for the last 37 consecutive years. [Analysis]
Fortune says it's unlikely that equities will enjoy a repeat of the mass revival of 2009. But, they believe these 10 companies should prosper even if the markets don't:
  • MasterCard (MA) - A global leader in credit card transaction processing and brand licensing providing services in over 210 countries and territories.
  • Amedisys (AMED) - A provider of home health care and hospice services in the eastern, southern and southeastern U.S.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) - Focuses on developing products and services based on its advanced wireless broadband technology.
  • Petrohawk Energy (HK) - Independent oil and gas company that is engaged in the acquisition, production, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties.
  • Baxter International (BAX) - Global medical products and services company provides critical therapies for people with life-threatening conditions.
  • Quanta (PWR) - Provides specialized contracting services, offering end-to-end network solutions to the electric power, gas, telecommunications and cable television industries.
  • Salesforce.com (CRM) - A leading provider of on-demand customer relationship management applications.
  • American Tower (AMT) - Operates the largest independent portfolio of wireless communications and broadcast towers in North America.
  • Renhe (RNHEF) - Develops air-raid shelters in China.
  • Vornado (VNO) - REIT that owns a diverse group of properties, including Northeast retail properties, New York City office buildings, and other interests. VNO is a Dividend Achiever that has increased its dividend for the last 37 consecutive years.
James Altucher in an article on Daily Finance presented his 10 favorites for 2010:
  • Assured Guaranty (AGO) - Provides financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance, as well as mortgage guaranty coverage.
  • Wellcare Health Plans (WCG) - Provides managed care services targeted exclusively to government-sponsored health care programs.
  • Potash (POT) - One of the world's largest diversified fertilizer companies and the world's largest potash producer.
  • Cash America (CSH) - Owns and operates pawnshops in the United States.
  • Becton Dickison (BDX) - Provides a wide range of medical devices and diagnostic products used in hospitals, doctors' offices, research labs and other settings. BDX is a Dividend Aristocrat that has increased its dividend for the last 37 consecutive years. [Analysis]
  • Hillenbrand (HI) - Hillenbrand is the largest supplier of products to the funeral service industry.
  • Telecom Corp. of New Zealand (NZT) - Provides telecommunications and information technology products and services to residential and business customers in New Zealand and Australia.
  • STEC (STEC) - Designs, makes and markets custom and open-standard memory solutions based on Flash memory and dynamic random access memory DRAM technologies.
  • Alvarion (ALVR) - Sells wireless broadband connectivity infrastructure products that allow telecom carriers and service providers to deliver high-speed data and voice services.
  • GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - International pharmaceutical company formed in December 2000 through the merger of British drugmakers GlaxoWellcome and SmithKline Beecham.
As a long-term, buy-and-hold income investor, many of the stocks in the above lists don't meet my criteria for a buy. Dividend investors are looking for stocks that will perform well over the long run, not just 2010. As such, I prefer to start with this list of stocks.

Full Disclosure: Long CLX, JNJ, PEP, PG. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Daniela Baack)


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Stock Analysis: Nucor Corporation (NUE)

Posted by D4L | Wednesday, December 23, 2009 | | 0 comments »

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net December 14, 2009.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Nucor Corporation (NUE). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Nucor Corporation is engaged in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. As the largest minimill steelmaker in the U.S., Nucor has one of the most diverse product lines of any steelmaker in the Americas.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
NUE is trading at a discount to 1.) and 2.) above. The stock is trading at a 46.4% premium to its calculated fair value of $28.85. NUE did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Free Cash Flow Payout
  2. Debt To Total Capital
  3. Key Metrics
  4. Dividend Growth Rate
  5. Years of Div. Growth
  6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
NUE earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. NUE earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (1999-2002, 2000-2003, 2001-2004, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to > MMA
NUE earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $9,612. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as NUE has. If NUE grows its dividend at 15.0% per year, it will take 1 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.72%. NUE earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 1 years is less than the 5 year target.

Other: NUE is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: NUE did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks NUE as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $119.43 before NUE's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 36 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.17%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.2%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 15.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. NUE has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

NUE has a solid share of the markets in which it competes, a very low ratio of total debt to assets, and a very diverse product mix. The company's relatively flexible cost structure (pay-for-performance) and low-cost operations have helped mitigate weak demand in the most recent downturn. Recently, the company announced a 2.9% dividend increase. This was much less than the last several years' increase, but speaks well to management's confidence in the company's ability to perform. The stock is currently trading well above my buy price of $28.85. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in NUE (3.5% of my Income Portfolio). What are your thoughts on NUE?


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Eight Recent Dividend Increases

Posted by D4L | Tuesday, December 22, 2009 | | 0 comments »

What separates income investors from dividend investors is the concept of a growing dividend. This dividend growth is the life-blood of a thriving dividend portfolio. The income derived from a quality, well-diversified portfolio is much more predictable than capital gains and the good companies routinely raise their dividends well in excess of the inflation rate.

Recently, the following companies announced increased cash dividends:

Safeway (SWY) is a major food retailer that operates about 1,750 stores in the U.S. and Canada. December 11th the company increased its quarterly cash dividend to $0.10/share. The dividend is payable on January 14, 2010 to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 24, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 22. The yield based on the new payout is 1.87%.

Pfizer (PFE) is the world's largest pharmaceutical company. It produces a wide range of drugs across a broad therapeutic spectrum. December 14th the company raised its quarterly dividend 12.5% to $0.18/share. The dividend is payable March 2, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on February 5, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 3.91%.

General Mills (GIS) is a major producer of packaged consumer food products, including Big G cereals and Betty Crocker desserts/baking mixes. December 14th the company boosted its quarterly dividend 12% $0.49/share. The dividend is payable February 1, 2010, to shareholders of record January 11, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.87%.

Hatteras Financial (HTS) is a REIT investing in adjustable-rate and hybrid adjustable-rate single-family residential mortgage pass-through securities. December 15th the company increased its quarterly dividend to $1.20/share. The dividend will be paid on January 22, 2010, to stockholders of record on December 28, 2009, with an ex-dividend date of December 23, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 15.82%.

Moody's (MCO) is a leading global credit rating, research and risk analysis concern. December 15th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5% to $0.105/share. The dividend is payable March 10, 2010 to stockholders of record at the close of business on February 20, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.56%.

BCE (BCE) is a Canadian wireline and wireless telecommunications company. December 17th the company raised its annual dividend 7% to $1.74/share. The first quarter installment is payable on April 15, 2010 to shareholders of record at the close of business on March 15, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 6.80%.

Waste Management (WM) is the largest U.S. trash hauling/disposal company. December 17th the company increased its quarterly dividend 9% to $0.315/share. This marks the sixth consecutive year that the Company has increased its quarterly dividend. The yield based on the new payout is 3.85%.

Urstadt Biddle Properties (UBA) this REIT owns and manages commercial real estate properties primarily in the northeastern United States. December 17th the company boosted its quarterly dividend to $0.2425/share. The dividends are payable January 22, 2010 to stockholders of record on January 8, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 6.44%.

To maximize the compounding effect, a company must raise their dividends each year. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.

(Photo Credit)


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Week's Best Links - December 21, 2009

Posted by D4L | Monday, December 21, 2009 | | 0 comments »

For your reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members


There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

Read More...

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Changes To The 2010 Dividend Aristocrats

Posted by D4L | Friday, December 18, 2009 | | 0 comments »

The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats is the most prestigious list of dividend stocks. The Dividend Aristocrats index is designed to measure the performance of S&P 500 constituents that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years. This index is a member of the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index series.

Dividend Aristocrats constituents exhibit the following characteristics:

  • Underlying Indices – S&P 500
  • Weighting – Equally weighted; Constituents re-weighted quarterly
  • Reconstitution – Reviewed annually in December
Among others, Dividend Aristocrats include these highly recognizable names, with years of consecutive dividend increases shown:
  • Clorox Co (CLX) - 32 years
  • Coca-Cola Co (KO) - 47 years - [Analysis]
  • Exxon (XOM) - 27 years
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - 47 years - [Analysis]
  • McDonald’s Corp (MCD) - 33 years - [Analysis]
  • Procter & Gamble (PG) - 53 years - [Analysis]
  • Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) -35 years - [Analysis]
Members may be deleted during the December rebalance if calendar-year dividends did not increase from the previous year, or intra-year if the stock is removed from the underlying S&P 500.

On December 4th, S&P announced changes to the Dividend Aristocrats Index. Standard & Poor’s will perform the annual reconstitution of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index after the close of trading on Friday, December 18, 2009.

The following stocks will be added to the Dividend Aristocrats:
  • Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B)
  • Cintas Corp. (CTAS)
The following stocks will be dropped from the Dividend Aristocrats:
  • Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)
  • BB&T Corp. (BBT)
  • Gannett Co., Inc. (GCI)
  • General Electric Co. (GE)
  • Johnson Controls Inc. (JCI)
  • Legg Mason Inc. (LM)
  • M&T Bank Corp. (MTB)
  • Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
  • State Street Corp. (STT)
  • US Bancorp (USB)
As the number of drops vs. adds indicates, the last two years were difficult for dividend stocks, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. During good times it is easy for companies to increase dividends, and many companies were added to the index. It is during times of adversity that we learn who the real aristocrats are.

Full Disclosure: Long CLX, KO, JNJ, MCD, PG, WMT. See a list of all my income holdings here.
(Photo Credit)

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Stock Analysis: Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF)

Posted by D4L | Thursday, December 17, 2009 | | 0 comments »

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net December 7, 2009.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Cincinnati Financial Corp. markets primarily property and casualty coverage; it also conducts life insurance and asset management operations.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
CINF is trading at a discount to 1.), 2.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 17.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $30.77. CINF earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Free Cash Flow Payout
  2. Debt To Total Capital
  3. Key Metrics
  4. Dividend Growth Rate
  5. Years of Div. Growth
  6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
CINF earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45% and it earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1954 and has increased its dividend payments for 49 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to > MMA
CINF earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $921. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as CINF has. The stock's current yield of 6.16% exceeds the 3.72% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Other: CINF is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: CINF earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks CINF as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $30.77 before CINF's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 49 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 5.10%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is negative (1.5%). This dividend growth rate is slightly less than the 0.6% used in this analysis, thus providing a very small margin of safety. CINF has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a medium risk stock.

CINF was founded by independent insurance agents in order to better service their needs by providing them preferential treatment when picking an underwriter. The company primarily sells commercial property-casualty insurance with a smaller personal lines exposure marketed through a select group of about 1,100 independent insurance agencies. Like most financial services companies, CINF has seen its share of struggles. Although, the stock is trading slightly below my buy price of $30.77, its Free Cash Flow payout of 78% gives me pause. Before seriously considering initiating a position in this stock, I plan to wait a few more quarters and watch for a decline in the FCF Payout. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in CINF (0.0% of my Income Portfolio). What are your thoughts on CINF?


Related Articles:

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________________________________________________________________

8 Recent Dividend Increases

Posted by D4L | Tuesday, December 15, 2009 | | 0 comments »

What separates income investors from dividend investors is the concept of a growing dividend. This dividend growth is the life-blood of a thriving dividend portfolio. The income derived from a quality, well-diversified portfolio is much more predictable than capital gains and the good companies routinely raise their dividends well in excess of the inflation rate.

Recently, the following companies announced increased cash dividends:

Graco (GGG) is a U.S.-based global producer of industrial pumps, valves, meters and accessories. December 4th the company increased its quarterly dividend 5% to $0.20/share. The dividend is payable on February 3, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on January 19, 2010. The ex-dividend date is January 15, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 2.80%.

Brandywine Realty Trust (BDN) is a real estate investment trust that owns, manages or has ownership interests in office and industrial properties. December 8th the company raised its quarterly dividend by 50% to $0.15/share. The dividend is payable on January 20, 2010 to holders of record on January 6, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 5.87%.

Western Union (WU) is a leading independent provider of consumer money transfer services. December 9th the company boosted its quarterly dividend 600% to $0.06/share. The dividend is payable December 30, 2009 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 21, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 17, 2009. The company also authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization. The new $1 billion, three year share repurchase authorization is effective as of January 1, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 1.27%.

Valspar (VAL) manufactures and distributes a wide range of paints and coatings for architectural, industrial, packaging, automotive refinish and other markets. December 9th the company increased its quarterly dividend 7% to $0.16/share. The dividend is payable January 15, 2010 to all common stockholders of record on December 31, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 29. VAL is a Dividend Achiever and has increased its dividend for 29 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.29%.

DPL Inc. (DPL) is a utility that serves more than 500,000 electric retail customers in west central Ohio. December 9th the company raised its quarterly dividend 7% to $0.3025/share. The yield based on the new payout is 4.27%.

Horace Mann (HMN) markets and underwrites personal lines of property and casualty and life insurance and retirement annuities in the U.S. December 9th the company boosted its quarterly dividend 52% to $0.08/share. The dividend is payable on December 31, 2009 to shareholders of record as of December 21, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 2.66%.

Erie Indemnity (ERIE) provides sales, underwriting, and policy issuance services to the policyholders of Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. December 10th the company increased its quarterly dividend $0.48/share. The dividend is payable January 20, 2010, to shareholders of record as of January 5, 2010, with a dividend ex-date of December 31, 2009. ERIE is a Dividend Achiever and has increased its dividend for 19 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 5.15%.

Edison International (EIX) is the holding company for Southern California Edison; businesses include electric power generation, financial investments, and real estate development. December 10th the company boosted its quarterly dividend 2% to $0.315/share. The dividend is payable January 31, 2010, to shareholders of record on December 31, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 3.55%.

When a company raises its cash dividend, management is making a positive statement on their view of the future. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive cash dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my income holdings here.


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Week's Best Links - December 14, 2009

Posted by D4L | Monday, December 14, 2009 | | 0 comments »

For your reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

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3 Paths Of Dividend Investing

Posted by D4L | Friday, December 11, 2009 | | 0 comments »

There are certainly many ways to categorize the different styles of investing in dividend stocks, including yield, risk, growth, etc. An investment strategy based on any of these could be successful, if implemented within the framework well-crafted plan. Over the years, I have found that most dividend investing styles fall into one of the three major categories listed below:

High Yield/Low Growth

I would classify dividend stocks with a yield over 5% and dividend growth less than 2% in this group. This is probably the most popular group, particularly among those new to income investing. It is human nature to want it now and lots of it, and high yield stocks appear to deliver that desire. However, there is often a reason the stock's yield is so high and many times the investor learns the hard way the yield is not always sustainable. Examples of stocks in the high yield/low growth group include:
  • National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) - Yield: 7.12 - Dividend Growth: 1.4%
  • Integrys Energy Group, Inc. (TEG) - Yield: 6.63 - Dividend Growth: 1.5%
  • Realty Income Corporation (O) - Yield: 6.61 - Dividend Growth: 2.1%
  • CenturyTel Inc. (CTL) - Yield: 5.97 - Dividend Growth: 0.0%

Low Yield/High Growth

I would classify dividend stocks with a yield less than 2.5% and dividend growth greater than 7.5% in this group. Low yield and high growth dividend stocks are the other extreme of high yield and low growth stocks. Their long-term risk is associated with growing the yield-on-cost over time. If the dividend growth rate is cut, the investor's future earnings and yield will also be cut. Stocks in this group would include:
  • Aflac Incorporated (AFL) - Yield: 2.44 - Dividend Growth: 16.7% [Analysis]
  • United Technologies Corp. (UTX) - Yield: 2.25 - Dividend Growth: 15.0% [Analysis]
  • Eaton Vance Corp. (EV) - Yield: 2.05 - Dividend Growth: 15.0%
  • Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) - Yield: 2.02 - Dividend Growth: 10.3%
  • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) - Yield: 2.01 - Dividend Growth: 11.3% [Analysis]
  • Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) - Yield: 1.63 - Dividend Growth: 15.0%
  • Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) - Yield: 1.53 - Dividend Growth: 15.0% [Analysis]

Moderate Yield/Moderate Growth

I would classify dividend stocks with a yield between 2.5% to 5% and a dividend growth rate between 2% to 7.5% in this group. This is a good compromise between the above too extremes. It is an approach focusing on a moderate yield and dividend growth rate. Keeping these two metrics at a reasonable level will help reduce the likelihood of either being cut. Companies in this group are your traditional dividend growth stocks, as seen from the list below:
  • Chubb Corp. (CB) - Yield: 2.88 - Dividend Growth: 6.1% [Analysis]
  • The Procter & Gamble Company (PG) - Yield: 2.81 - Dividend Growth: 7.3% [Analysis]
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Yield: 3.00 - Dividend Growth: 7.5% [Analysis]
  • Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) - Yield: 3.09 - Dividend Growth: 5.5% [Analysis]
  • Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) - Yield: 3.13 - Dividend Growth: 6.4% [Analysis]
  • Chevron Corporation (CVX) - Yield: 3.41 - Dividend Growth: 5.1%
  • SYSCO Corporation (SYY) - Yield: 3.39 - Dividend Growth: 4.3% [Analysis]
In my personal investing strategy, I incorporate measured participation in each of the above groups. My primary focus is on the Moderate Yield/Moderate Growth stocks, believing that over time this group carriers the highest probability of success. The remaining two groups offer the potential for above average returns - as long as they continue to perform at the estimated level, which is often difficult to do over time.

Full Disclosure: Long NNN, TEG, O, CTL, AFL, UTX, WMT, CNI, CB, PG, JNJ, ADP, EMR, CVX, SYY. See a list of all my income holdings here.
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Stock Analysis: HCC Insurance Holdings Inc. (HCC)

Posted by D4L | Thursday, December 10, 2009 | | 0 comments »

This article originally appeared on The DIV-Net November 30, 2009.

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of HCC Insurance Holdings Inc. (HCC). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: HCC Insurance Holdings Inc. is a multi-line insurer that specializes in aviation, marine, medical stop-loss, offshore energy and property and casualty insurance in the U.S. and the U.K.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
HCC is trading at a discount to all four valuations above. The stock is trading at a slight discount to its calculated fair value of $26.41. HCC earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Free Cash Flow Payout
  2. Debt To Total Capital
  3. Key Metrics
  4. Dividend Growth Rate
  5. Years of Div. Growth
  6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
HCC earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45% and earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (1999-2002, 2000-2003, 2001-2004, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1985 and has increased its dividend payments for 13 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to > MMA

HCC earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $2,387. This amount is in excess of the $2,200 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as HCC has. If HCC grows its dividend at 15.0% per year, it will take 5 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.72%.

Other: HCC is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.

Conclusion: HCC earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks HCC as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $26.94 before HCC's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $2,200 minimum that I look for in a stock with 13 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.93%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $2,200 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 14.7%. This dividend growth rate is slightly less than the 15.0% used in this analysis, thus providing very little margin of safety. HCC has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

HCC uses an opportunistic underwriting approach in which the it waits for other insurers to suffer losses in a particular insurance line. Then the company enters benefiting from their mistakes. Risks of catastrophic events in HCC's aviation and energy businesses increase earnings volatility. Also, as a result of the financial crisis, there is increased risk associated with HCC's directors and officers business. Although, the stock is trading slightly below my buy price of $26.41, its reliance on a high dividend growth rate to achieve its target NPV MMA Diff , along with a dividend yield of less than 2% will keep me on the sidelines for now. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in HCC (0.0% of my Income Portfolio). What are your thoughts on HCC?

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11 Recent Dividend Increases

Posted by D4L | Tuesday, December 08, 2009 | | 0 comments »

What separates income investors from dividend investors is the concept of a growing dividend. This dividend growth is the life-blood of a thriving dividend portfolio. The income derived from a quality, well-diversified portfolio is much more predictable than capital gains and the good companies routinely raise their dividends well in excess of the inflation rate.

Recently, the following companies announced increased cash dividends:

New Jersey Resources (NJR) supplies gas to more than 478,000 customers in central and northern New Jersey. December 1st the company increased its quarterly dividend 10% to $0.34/share. The dividend will be paid January 4, 2010 to shareholders of record on December 15, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 11, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 3.78%.

Toro Co. (TTC) makes, and markets outdoor maintenance and beautification products for home, recreation, and commercial landscapes. December 2nd the company raised its quarterly dividend 20% to $0.18/share. The dividend is payable on January 12, 2010 to shareholders of record on December 18, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 16, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 1.77%.

Lincoln Electric (LECO) manufactures arc welding products, robotic welding systems, and oxyfuel cutting equipment. December 2nd the company boosted its dividend 3.7% to $0.28/share. The dividend is payable January 15, 2010, to shareholders of record on December 31, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 2.02%.

Enbridge (ENB) transports crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons; and engages in gas utility operations that serve residential, commercial, industrial customers in Canada. December 2nd the company increased its quarterly dividend 15% to $0.425/share. The dividend is payable on March 1, 2010 to shareholders of record on February 15, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 3.67%.

Nucor Corporation (NUE) the largest minimill steelmaker in the U.S. with one of the most diverse product lines of any steelmaker in the Americas. December 2nd the company raised its quarterly dividend 3% to $0.36/share. The dividend is payable on February 11, 2010 to stockholders of record on December 31, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 29, 2009. Yield on the dividend is 3.2%. NUE is a Dividend Achiever and has increased its dividend for 36 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 3.29%.

Universal Health Realty Income Trust (UHT) is a real estate investment trust invests in healthcare and human service related facilities. December 2nd the company boosts its quarterly dividend to $0.60/share. The dividend will be paid on December 31, 2009 to shareholders of record as of December 16, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 7.86%.

Hillenbrand (HI) manufactures and sells gasketed caskets made of carbon steel, stainless steel, copper & bronze; offers a cremation marketing system for funeral service professionals. December 2nd the company increased its quarterly Dividend to $0.1875/share. The dividend is payable December 31, 2009, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 17, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 3.94%.

Comcast (CMCSA) is the largest U.S. cable multiple system operator (MSO), as well as a provider of cable programming content. December 3rd jumped its annual dividend 40% to $0.378/share. The dividend is payable on January 27, 2010 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on January 6, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 2.38%.

Cameco Corporation (CCJ) explores, develops, mines, refines, converts, and fabricates uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and globally. December 3rd the company increased it annual dividend 17% to $0.28/share. The company's board of directors also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.06 per common share, payable on January 15, 2010 to shareholders of record on December 31, 2009. The yield based on the new payout is 0.71%.

OGE Energy (OGE) delivers and manages electricity and natural gas primarily in the south central United States. December 3 the company raised its annual dividend to $1.45/share. The dividend will be paid Jan. 29, 2010, to shareowners of record Jan. 8, 2010. The yield based on the new payout is 4.05%.

Ecolab (ECL) is the leading worldwide marketer of cleaning, sanitizing and maintenance products and services for the hospitality, institutional and industrial markets. December 3rd the company boosted its quarterly 11% to $0.155/share. The dividend will be paid January 15, 2010, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 15, 2009. The ex-dividend date is December 11, 2009. ECL is a Dividend Achiever and has increased its dividend for 18 consecutive years. The yield based on the new payout is 1.37%.

Earnings can be manufactured, cash can not. One sign of a company's ability to generate cash is an ever-increasing dividend. For a list of stocks with a long string of consecutive dividend increases, see this list.

Full Disclosure: Long NUE. See a list of all my income holdings here.

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Week's Best Links - December 7, 2009

Posted by D4L | Monday, December 07, 2009 | | 0 comments »

For your reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.

Read More...

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D4L-Premium Services: Beat The January Price Increase

Posted by D4L | Saturday, December 05, 2009 | | 0 comments »

Since its introduction in July 2009, the D4L Premium Services has seen excellent growth in both features and subscribers. In addition to the initial D4L-Dashboard feature, the D4L-Premium Services now includes Analytical Reports and D4L-Alerts. New features are already in the works for 2010. To-date, there has been over 100 subscribers with nearly a 90% retention rate.

A price increase for NEW subscribers is planned for January 2010. During the month of December you can still lock in 2009's price and beat the January 2010 price increase. This price increase will NOT affect current subscribers and anyone that subscribes in December.

The D4L Premium Services are designed for the serious dividend investor. If you have not yet subscribed, please see the Overview and Subscribe page for more information on the benefits of these services, sample reports, pricing and subscription information. The premium section can always be accessed via the Premium menu option on the top-left of the menu bar above.


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